Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.404950 0.463448 0.526899 0.600766 0.684326 0.775853 0.883635
2025-08-03 0.332582 0.413223 0.507510 0.625618 0.769329 0.938226 1.151482
2025-08-10 0.259986 0.348783 0.460100 0.609283 0.803304 1.046353 1.373094
2025-08-17 0.201518 0.290884 0.410584 0.581544 0.818175 1.132681 1.580645
2025-08-24 0.163602 0.253050 0.380542 0.573771 0.857096 1.254718 1.851776
2025-08-31 0.133653 0.220820 0.352618 0.563886 0.890858 1.373574 2.134717
2025-09-07 0.115266 0.202535 0.341930 0.577248 0.959952 1.551661 2.526975
2025-09-14 0.093832 0.175218 0.312429 0.556094 0.971946 1.644275 2.800786
2025-09-21 0.078974 0.156213 0.293224 0.548356 1.003771 1.771153 3.144131
2025-09-28 0.066404 0.138865 0.273847 0.536884 1.026914 1.885613 3.480054
2025-10-05 0.059741 0.131456 0.271140 0.554783 1.103977 2.100801 4.014158
2025-10-12 0.052089 0.120561 0.259943 0.554688 1.147351 2.260622 4.467536
2025-10-19 0.046370 0.112937 0.254582 0.566511 1.217758 2.483378 5.073481
2025-10-26 0.041647 0.106593 0.250854 0.581223 1.296338 2.732003 5.760637
2025-11-02 0.034881 0.094080 0.231652 0.559887 1.297636 2.829577 6.164370
2025-11-09 0.028706 0.081623 0.210295 0.530118 1.276355 2.878521 6.475792
2025-11-16 0.024701 0.073806 0.198384 0.520061 1.297115 3.017677 6.992398
2025-11-23 0.021256 0.066697 0.186877 0.508986 1.313801 3.149906 7.509951
2025-11-30 0.019298 0.063324 0.184271 0.519603 1.383444 3.408041 8.336145
2025-12-07 0.016337 0.056280 0.170616 0.499401 1.374614 3.485852 8.762303
2025-12-14 0.014273 0.051483 0.162199 0.491667 1.395985 3.636756 9.375854
2025-12-21 0.012395 0.046810 0.153221 0.480795 1.407478 3.765000 9.949816
2025-12-28 0.011547 0.045386 0.153575 0.496539 1.492380 4.083943 11.024248